By Jacob Zwack Realtor, The Minnesota Real Estate Team

Yes, I came straight from a showing to the kickball field. No, I didn’t have time to change. While I was dusting off my suit pants after that triple, someone asked me if they should wait to buy a house. Here’s the dug-out version of the math.

1. The Pitch Got Easier

Last year, rates were sitting around 7%. Today, we’re seeing them closer to 6%. That’s like the pitcher switching from fastballs to slow-pitch.

Last Year

~7.0%

Now

Today

~6.06%

2. Your Money Hits Harder

Because the rate dropped, your same monthly budget now buys significantly more house. It’s a financial grand slam.

Increased Buying Power

+$42,000

(Approx. gain for a $2,500/mo budget)

3. Don’t Get Tagged Out

Thinking about waiting for rates to drop more?

Bad play. Home prices in the North Metro are rising faster than rates are dropping. You’re waiting to save $40/month, but the house price just went up $15,000. You’ll lose that game every time.

4. The Secret Play

Selling to buy? Most agents charge ~6% total. I run a different playbook for move-up buyers.

Standard Agent Fee ~6.0%

My Move-Up Fee 3.7% Total

*(1% Listing side + 2.7% Buyer side)*

Game Time.

I need to get back in the outfield. If you want to run the exact numbers for your situation, let’s chat before the next inning.

Email Jake

In the world of real estate, there is a lot of noise. Turn on the TV, and you’ll hear national pundits talking about “housing crashes” or “skyrocketing rates” in vague, general terms. But if you are sitting at your kitchen table in Coon Rapids or Andover trying to decide if you can afford to move this year, national averages are useless. You need to know what a mortgage actually looks like here, in Anoka County, with our specific property taxes, our insurance rates, and our home prices.

As we settle into 2026, the financial landscape has shifted significantly from where we were just twelve months ago. We aren’t seeing the rock-bottom 3% rates of the pandemic era, but we also aren’t seeing the painful 7.5%+ spikes of the recent past. We are in a “new normal”—a stabilization period that offers unique opportunities for buyers who understand the math.

This article is not a sales pitch; it is a financial breakdown. We are going to look at exactly how interest rates impact your buying power in the North Metro, compare the real cost of buying today versus last year, and analyze whether “waiting for rates to drop” is a viable strategy or a financial trap.

The 1% Difference: Why It Matters More Than Price

Most buyers fixate on the asking price of a home. While price is important, the interest rate is the lever that actually dictates your lifestyle. It determines your monthly obligation and your long-term wealth.

Let’s look at the data. In January 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate in Minnesota was hovering around 6.8% to 7.0%. Today, in January 2026, we are seeing rates average closer to 6.06% for well-qualified buyers.

That drop of roughly 0.8% to 1% might sound small, but on a 30-year timeline, it is massive.

The Math of Purchasing Power

Let’s assume you have a budget of $2,500 per month for Principal and Interest (excluding taxes/insurance for a moment).

• At 7% Interest (2025 Rates): That monthly payment buys you a loan amount of roughly $375,000.
• At 6% Interest (2026 Rates): That same monthly payment buys you a loan amount of roughly $417,000.

The Result: Without spending a penny more per month, your purchasing power has increased by $42,000. In our local market, that is the difference between a split-level in Coon Rapids that needs a new roof and a kitchen remodel, versus a turnkey two-story in Champlin that is ready for move-in.

Real-World Scenarios: Anoka County Breakdown

Let’s get specific. Theoretical math is fine, but let’s apply this to the actual housing stock available in our neighborhoods right now. We will include estimated Anoka County property taxes (approx. 1.15%) and homeowners insurance ($175/mo average) to give you a “True PITI” (Principal, Interest, Taxes, Insurance) payment.

Scenario A: The First-Time Buyer in Coon Rapids

Target Home: A 1980s Split-Level, 3 Bed, 2 Bath.

Purchase Price: $350,000

Down Payment: 5% ($17,500)

Loan Amount: $332,500

The 2025 Reality (7.0% Rate):

• Principal & Interest: $2,212
• Property Taxes: ~$335
• Insurance: ~$175
• PMI (Est): ~$150
• Total Monthly Payment: $2,872

The 2026 Reality (6.06% Rate):

• Principal & Interest: $2,006
• Property Taxes: ~$335
• Insurance: ~$175
• PMI (Est): ~$150
• Total Monthly Payment: $2,666

The Savings: By buying in the 2026 environment, you save $206 per month. Over the first five years of owning that home, that is $12,360 in cash that stays in your pocket rather than going to the bank.

Scenario B: The “Move-Up” Buyer in Andover/Ham Lake

Target Home: Newer Construction or Large Two-Story on Acreage.

Purchase Price: $600,000

Down Payment: 20% ($120,000) from the sale of a previous home.

Loan Amount: $480,000

The 2025 Reality (7.0% Rate):

• Principal & Interest: $3,193
• Property Taxes: ~$575
• Insurance: ~$200
• Total Monthly Payment: $3,968

The 2026 Reality (6.06% Rate):

• Principal & Interest: $2,896
• Property Taxes: ~$575
• Insurance: ~$200
• Total Monthly Payment: $3,671

The Savings: The savings here are dramatic—nearly $300 per month. That covers your utility bills. More importantly, over the life of the loan, the 2026 buyer pays $107,000 LESS in total interest than the 2025 buyer.

The “Wait and See” Trap: Price Appreciation vs. Rate Drops

This is the most common question I get: “Jake, should I wait for rates to drop to 5%?”

I understand the instinct. Everyone wants a lower payment. But there is a hidden variable that most calculators ignore: Home Price Appreciation.

The North Metro market is growing. In Coon Rapids alone, we saw nearly 6% appreciation last year. Even if we assume a modest 3% appreciation for 2026, waiting comes with a penalty.

Let’s look at that $350,000 Coon Rapids house again.

If you buy NOW (Jan 2026):

• Price: $350,000
• Rate: 6.06%
• Payment: $2,666/mo

If you wait 12 months (Jan 2027):

• Scenario: Rates drop to 5.5% (Best Case), but the home price appreciates 4% to $364,000.
• New Loan Amount (with 5% down): $345,800
• New Payment at 5.5%: $2,628/mo

The Verdict: You waited a whole year to save… $38 a month. But what did you lose?

1. You paid rent for another 12 months (likely $24,000+ with 0% ROI).
2. You missed out on $14,000 in equity growth (the appreciation).
3. You risked increased competition. When rates drop, buyer pools flood the market, leading to bidding wars that drive the price up even further than the standard appreciation.

In almost every scenario, time in the market beats timing the market. You can always refinance a rate later; you cannot renegotiate the purchase price of a home 5 years ago.

The Hidden Costs in Anoka County (And How to Offset Them)

Living in the North Metro offers immense value, but we must be realistic about costs. Property taxes in Anoka County have seen adjustments recently. As a professional, I advise my clients not to look at the “Zillow Estimate” for taxes, but to look at the county records.

We are seeing tax rates hover effectively around 1.1% to 1.2% of assessed value. On a $400,000 home, you must budget $4,400/year, or $366/month.

However, there is a way to massively offset these costs, specifically if you are a current homeowner looking to move up.

The “Zwack Factor”: Reducing Transaction Costs

When you sell a home to buy a new one, transaction fees eat into your buying power. The industry standard is that a seller pays roughly 6% in commissions (split between listing agent and buyer agent) plus closing costs. On a $350,000 sale, that 6% is $21,000 of your equity gone.

This is where my Move-Up Program changes the math entirely.

If you choose to sell your current home and buy your next one with me, I reduce the listing side fee to 1%.

• Standard Agent: 3.3% Listing Side + 2.7% Buyer Side = 6% Total.
• My Program: 1% Listing Side + 2.7% Buyer Side = 3.7% Total.

The Savings: On that same $350,000 sale, you save 2.3%, which is $8,050.

That $8,050 isn't just "savings." It's a down payment boost. If you apply that $8,050 to your new mortgage, it lowers your monthly payment by another $50-$60/month forever.

Conclusion: Data-Driven Confidence

Buying a home is emotional, but the decision should be mathematical. The data for 2026 tells us a clear story:

1. Rates have stabilized to a point where buying power is significantly stronger than in 2024-2025.
2. Home prices in the North Metro are appreciating, making "waiting" a costly gamble.
3. Transaction strategies (like the Move-Up Program) can reclaim equity that the market would otherwise eat up.

You don't need to guess. I have built a custom True Cost Calculator below. It doesn't just show you the monthly payment—it shows you the impact of extra principal payments and compares your net worth over time using my reduced fee structure versus the industry standard.

Run the numbers. If they make sense, let’s talk.

Jacob Zwack Realtor, The Minnesota Real Estate Team 763-250-3146 jacob@mnrealestateteam.com